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Economic survey



India must slash deficit, cap debt by FY15 while India Inc wants continuation of stimulus in next fiscal as Finance Ministry urges fiscal discipline ahead of budget!Finance Commission for calibrated exit strategy from stimulus!

Survey gung-ho on economy, rising prices worrying! Finmin for more regulatory powers, not futures ban!


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Budget: What to expect, what not to expect

Rediff - Mukul Gupta - ‎1 hour ago‎
Amid speculation that taxes and duties might be raised as part of a partial rollback of the economic stimulus, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will ...

Budget tomorrow amid debate on stimulus rollback

NDTV.com - ‎2 hours ago‎
PTI, February 25, 2010 (New Delhi) Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee will present the Budget for 2010-11 on Friday, amid speculation that taxes and duties ...

We'll look at gap between wholesale, retail prices: Pranab

Indian Express - ‎2 hours ago‎
Concerned over the huge difference between wholesale and retail prices of farm produce, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday said the government ...

India Estimates 2010 Economic Growth

Voice of America - Anjana Pasricha - ‎2 hours ago‎
India estimates that its economy will grow by more than eight percent, in the coming fiscal year. But there are concerns about high inflation, ...

Survey moots catastrophe bonds to insure for nat calamities

Business Standard - ‎2 hours ago‎
PTI / New Delhi February 25, 2010, 17:16 IST The Economic Survey today suggested the introduction of a new product in the capital market to provide ...

Economic Survey says industrial growth has revived to 7.7 percent in 2009-10

Sify - ‎2 hours ago‎
The Economic Survey for 2009-10 presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament on Thursday has revealed a recovery in the industrial sector as ...

Economic Survey says India's trade prospects has brightened in 2010

Sify - ‎2 hours ago‎
The Economic Survey for 2009-10 presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament on Thursday has revealed India's share in world merchandise ...

Finance Commission gives new roadmap for fiscal deficit

Business Standard - ‎3 hours ago‎
PTI / New Delhi February 25, 2010, 16:52 IST With stimulus measures forcing the government to go way off its self-imposed fiscal discipline targets, ...

More than 500000 jobs added in second quarter: Economic Survey

Economic Times - ‎3 hours ago‎
NEW DELHI: The job market in India made a significant recovery during the second quarter of this fiscal with employment up by 500000 against a cut of 131000 ...

Scope for introduction of catastrophe bonds

Economic Times - ‎3 hours ago‎
25 Feb 2010, 1441 hrs IST, PTI NEW DELHI: There is scope for introduction of catastrophe bonds in the Indian capital market and it is an area that needs ...

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Excl: How experts view the Economic Survey
‎5 hours ago‎ - Moneycontrol.com



TAKE A LOOK-India's federal budget expectations
‎10 hours ago‎ - Reuters India

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Economic Survey 2010 - Full Text

The Hindu - ‎6 hours ago‎
The text of the Economic Survey presented by the Finance Minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament on February 25, 2010. Emphasis on security, passenger ...

Eco Survey stresses on importance of primary schooling, higher edu

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ORIGINAL TEXT

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(Nixon, Indira and India by Kalyani Shankar; Macmillan, 2010; pages 234, 278-279.) IH Burney's intrepid weekly Outlook (of May 25, 1974), in a detailed ...

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11, 2010, should not be taken as a representative canvassing of internet experts. By design, the survey was an "opt in," self-selecting effort. ...

Weekly Digest Issue No. 503

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Food inflation at 17.58% y-o-y on Feb 13

25 Feb 2010, 1205 hrs IST, REUTERS
NEW DELHI: Food inflation rose 17.58 percent in the 12 months to February 13, while the fuel price index was up 9.89%, the government said on

Thursday.

The rise in the food price index was lower than an annual rise of 17.97 percent in the previous week.

India's primary articles price index was up 15.84 percent year-on-year as on Feb. 13.

India's annual wholesale price inflation (WPI) picked up to 8.56 percent in January, compared with 7.31 percent last December. Climbing food and fuel costs along with a pickup in manufacturing prices are expected to push the headline inflation to 10 percent by March, according to some analysts and India's chief statistician Pronab Sen.

Other stories in this section

More >>

Other News
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/default1.cms


Fiscal ending with clear signs of economic rebound: Pranab

25 Feb 2010, 1328 hrs IST, PTI
NEW DELHI: Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said that financial year 2009-10 was ending with clear signs of economic rebound and the

growth would rise to about 8.5 per cent in the next fiscal.

"It (fiscal 2009-10) began amidst the gloom of an economic downturn, but the year is ending with clear indicators of vibrant economic rebound," he told reporters after tabling the Economic Survey and report of the 13th Finance Commission in Parliament.

"Capturing this mood (of economic rebound), the Survey forecasts a GDP growth of 8.5 per cent +/- 0.25 per cent during 2010-11", the Minister said.

Following the impact of the global financial crisis, the economic growth rate slipped to 6.7 per cent during 2008-09 from over 9 per cent during the preceding three years.

Referring to the report of the Finance Commission, Mukherjee said, "We have accepted all the major recommendations of the Commission."

The Commission in its report on devolution of taxes, recommended that share of states in union taxes be raised to 32 per cent from 30.5 per cent now.

"The states will get 1.5 per cent (of the net proceeds of union taxes) more," Mukherjee said.
Finmin for more regulatory powers, not futures ban
MUMBAI: India should not impose an outright ban on futures trade and should provide a firm regulatory structure to promote transparency, the

Economic Survey said on Thursday.

"Government should, ideally, desist from imposing an outright ban on futures trade," the finance ministry said in its annual survey of economy for fiscal year to March 2010.

The seven year old Indian commodity futures market has witnessed the ban and suspension of futures trade in many agricultural commodities since 2007, for its alleged role for stoking spot prices.

However, the Abhijit Sen committee constituted by the government did not find any link between futures trading and surging spot prices.

The report said, "an enabling government takes the view that if we cannot establish a connection between the existence of futures trading and inflation in spot prices, we should allow futures trade."

The report said the commodity futures market should be provided "with a regulatory structure to promote transparency and to discourage collusion."

This could be an indication that the regulator, Forward Markets Commission, would be strengthened, market participants said.

The Forward Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill 2006, which is pending approval in the lower house of Parliament, gives more teeth to the regulator.


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Highlights of the Economic Survey

Thursday February 25, 2010 03:19 am PST

New Delhi: Following are the highlights of the annual Economic Survey for the current fiscal tabled by the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the Lok Sabha on Thursday:

 

- Total water in reservoirs 90.48 billion cubic metres, which is lower than the 10-year average

 

- Improve food production, productivity and stock management

 

- Adequate stock of foodgrain to meet requirements under welfare schemes during current fiscal

 

- Outlook for India's trade sector in 2010 has brightened

 

- Bank credit to the commercial sector, shows revival since November 2009

 

- Proposal to double the target of rural houses to 12 million through the Indira Awaas Yojana in the next five years

 

- Stimulus package major cause for lower indirect receipts

 

- Employment increases by 500,000 in July-September quarter compared to first quarter of current fiscal

 

- Core industries, infrastructure services show recovery signs in the middle of overall industrial growth

 

- Gross domestic product expected to grow 8.25-8.75 percent in 2009-10

 

- Economic growth during next fiscal may cross 9 percent

 

- Government should free grain stocks if food prices rise

 

- Delay in market release of imported sugar led to high prices

 

- Calibrate exit strategy from fiscal stimulus

 

- Centre, states need to begin fiscal consolidation, cap debt levels

 

- Poverty levels too high for growing nation like India

 

- Food subsidy should be given to households, instead of routing through public distribution system

 

- Poor families should be given food coupons to buy at discount from any shop

 

- Reduce excise duty to boost exports

 

- Liberalise foreign investment norms in education, healthcare sectors

 

- Sustaining current levels of domestic petroleum prices not viable

 

- Expenditure restraint can help contain deficit at budgeted levels

 

- High inflation due to supply-side bottlenecks

 

- Growth in telecom to continue with monthly additions exceeding 17.6 million connections

 

- Share of central government expenditure on social services up by 19.46 percent in current fiscal

 

- Foreign exchange reserves rise to $31.5 billion in current fiscal to $283.5 billion till end December 2009

 

- Balance of payment situation improves due to surge in capital flows and rise in foreign exchange reserves, accompanied by rupee appreciation

 

Indo Asian News Service




 
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India must slash deficit, cap debt by FY15....!

India can become fastest growing economy in four years: Survey

Survey gung-ho on economy, rising prices worrying!

Economic Survey stresses importance of primary schooling,higher education!The government has spent Rs425 crore for setting up of new polytechnics during 2009, covering 175 districts!



"It is entirely possible for India to move into the rarefied domain of double-digit growth and even don the mantle of the fastest-growing economy in the world within the next four years," said the survey, a day ahead of the federal budget.

"The Indian GDP can be expected to grow around 8.5 percent (plus or minus 0.25 percent), with a full recovery, breaching the 9 percent mark in 2011-12," said the survey tabled by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament

Finance Ministry urges fiscal discipline ahead of budget!It is all set to SUSTAIN the Stimulus!The pre-Budget Economic Survey today favoured providing further stimulus for the exports sector, arguing that the recovery prospects in global markets are still fragile. It said that despite some improvement in global trade environment, the downside risks makes it imperative for the government to reform policies concerning imports as well.

India Inc wants continuation of stimulus in next fiscal! The STIMULUS amousnts around Rs.Four Lac Fifteen Crore while the Goevrnment of Brahamin Zionist India Incs suggests Fiscal Discipline implementing Disinvestment and Divetsment in accordance with Rothschild master paln of Economic Ethnic Cleansing. Budget Defecit remains intact despite changing the Base Year and Stastical Jugglery and IPL Mind Control as well as Parliamentary WWF most entertaining. Foreign Capital Inflow is the Back Bone of the Peripherry Economy and FIIs ably assisted by LPG Mafia in every Free market Democratic Institution, control the Economy!

The government must cut its fiscal deficit to 3 per cent of the GDP by 2013/14 and eliminate its revenue deficit in the year after, a top government panel said.India must also cap its total debt at 68 per cent of the GDP by the 2014/15 financial year, the report of the 13th Finance Commission, tabled in parliament on Thursday, said.

Meanwhile, India's gross domestic product (GDP) can expand by double-digit levels to emerge as the fastest growing economy in the world by 2014,

even as spiralling prices remains the immediate concern, says the Economic Survey for this fiscal.

On the other hand,Finance Commission for calibrated exit strategy from stimulus!

The 13th Finance Commission has asked the government to adopt a "calibrated" strategy for withdrawing stimulus measures provided to spur the economy in the wake of the global economic crisis.

Although the Economic Survey has favoured providing further stimulus to the exports sector, the economic document also factors in the recommendations of the Finance Commission and said that the suggestions have to be taken on board in shaping the fiscal policy for 2010-11 and medium term.

The Commission recommended "a calibrated exit strategy from the expansionary fiscal stance of 2008-09 and 2009-10."

Both the Survey and the Finance Commission's report were tabled in Parliament today.

The Commission also recommended increase in states share to 32 per cent of Central tax proceeds from the current level of 30.5 per cent.

"The share of states in net proceeds of shareable Central taxes shall be 32 per cent every year for the period of the award (2010-11 to 2014-15," said the Commission, headed by former finance secretary Vijay Kelkar.

The Commission also proposed that a new Fiscal Responsibility and Budgetary Management (FRBM) Act should have a space for relaxing targets of deficits on account of economic shocks.

"The FRBM Act needs to specify the nature of shocks that would require relaxation of the targets there under," the commission recommends.

The overall approach of the recommendations is to foster "inclusive and green growth promoting fiscal federalism," said the Survey.

The government should start rolling back its economic stimulus and impose a cap on government debt in coming years, a finance ministry report said on Thursday, making the case for fiscal discipline a day before the annual budget.

While results often fall short of official targets in India, the finance ministry gave an optimistic economic growth forecast and called for reforms to more than halve the fiscal deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by the financial year ending in March 2014.

Enthused by reforms and the strong fundamentals, the Economic Survey today predicted that India would bounce back to a high nine per

cent growth in 2011-12 on the way to becoming world's fastest growing economy in four years.

The document, which assesses the state of the economy, warned that high food prices would rise further over next few months and criticised the food management policies that have led to "unacceptably" high prices of items like sugar.

Food inflation is at present hovering close to 18 per cent! The pre-budget Survey (2009-10), presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament, also recommended a "gradual rollback" of stimulus measures after assessing the impact on each sector.

Projecting the economic growth to touch up to 8.75 per cent in 2010-11 and nine per cent in the next year, the Survey said: "It is entirely possible for India to move into the rarefied domain of double digit growth and even attempt to don the mantle" of the fastest growing economy in the world within the next four years.

It, however, expressed concern over rising prices, saying that a major concern during 2009-10 was the emergence of high double digit food inflation.


Questioning the Economic Survey's recommendation for rollback of stimulus measures, India Inc today asked the government to continue with these incentives in the Union Budget to ensure high growth.

 "For a higher growth, the government will have to adopt a calibrated approach and continue with stimulus package for at least another fiscal," Assocham President Swati Piramal said.

A day before the presentation of the Union Budget 2010-11, the Survey suggested gradual rollback of stimulus steps, including tax concessions to arrest slowdown of Indian economy in the face of global financial meltdown, echoing the recommendations made by the Prime Ministers' Economic Advisory Committee.

The rollback, it said, would help cut down the fiscal deficit that is estimated at 6.8 per cent of GDP in 2009-10 that was fed by a fall in indirect tax collections and delay in 3G auction.

FICCI President Harsh Pati Singhania said: "The government should continue with stimulus measures as the growth in the industrial and export sector is mainly because of the support".

"It's ambitious, but it's possible. I think it's all about structural reforms, things which economists find very easy to propose but politicians find very difficult to accept," said Brian Jackson, senior emerging markets analyst with the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

A show of fiscal discipline in Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee's budget will be heartening to investors and the Reserve Bank of India, which manages the government's borrowing and has called on New Delhi to rein in its deficit.

"The government has recognised arguments that support fiscal consolidation. Obviously they have got political considerations. Tomorrow we're going to see how they balance the two," Jackson added.

Bond yields , however, were unmoved by the report and stocks were off by 0.32 per cent.

The finance ministry's report called for efforts to remove hurdles to infrastructure funding. Inadequate electricity, roads and urban infrastructure have long hindered India's economic growth.

The ministry's economic survey for the 2009/10 financial year urged a calibrated exit from fiscal stimulus, which cushioned India's economy from the worst of the global downturn but pushed the fiscal deficit to a 16-year high of 6.8 per cent of GDP.

Strong growth along with supply-side inflationary pressures are pushing up inflation, and high food prices could spill over into general inflation, the report said.

India's food prices rose 17.58 per cent in the 12 months to Feb. 13, a touch slower than previous week's 17.97 per cent rise, data released on Thursday showed. The fuel price index was up 9.89 per cent.

Growth ahead

The report, presented ahead of Friday's general budget, forecast economic growth at 8.25-8.75 per cent in 2010/11, accelerating to over 9 per cent the year after, compared with projected growth of 7.2-7.5 per cent in the current year that ends on March 31.

"It's good to see recommendations on consolidating government finances. Medium-term targets for both growth and debt levels can be attained provided strong policy push and fiscal prudence is maintained," said Vivek Kumar, economist at ICICI Bank in Mumbai.

Double-digit growth is possible within the next four years, the report said.

The report also said a top government panel had recommended capping total federal and state debt at 68 per cent of GDP by 2014/15. Now, combined central and state debt runs at 80 per cent of GDP.

With the economy picking up steam, the finance minister is widely expected to start phasing out fiscal stimulus in his budget for the new financial year and reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.6 per cent of GDP, a recent Reuters poll showed.

The government is financing its fiscal gap for the current fiscal year with a record 4.51 trillion rupees ($97 billion) of market borrowing and analysts fear high government borrowing in the next fiscal year runs the risk of crowding out private credit demand and hurting the economic recovery.

"The downside risks for world and the Indian trade lie in the fact that though the fall has been arrested, both output and trade recoveries are still fragile given the fact that the recovery has been pumped up by the stimulus given by different countries, including India," the Survey said.

Amid the debate on withdrawal of the stimulus, including speculation of a possible across-the-board roll back of cuts in excise duty and service tax, the document suggested further reduction in excise for export oriented industries.

For the merchandise sector, some fundamental policy changes are needed "...These include further tariff reforms by lowering the peak duties (custom) from the present 10 per cent to 7.5 per cent, reductions of tariffs on all capital goods to a uniform 3 per cent and further reduction in excise duties to make exports and industry competitive."

The government had cut excise duty from 14 per cent to eight per cent and service tax from 12 per cent to 10 per cent in the wake of the global financial slowdown.

India's exports, after falling for 13 consecutive months since October 2008, turned positive from November 2009. But in April-December period, exports were down by 20.3 per cent.

However, the Survey pointed out that the early signs of pick-up are due to low base and the export value is even lower than the absolute value of the pre-crisis period.

It also expressed concerns over the leading economies like the US resorting to protectionist measures.

"The high employment rates in some developed countries forcing even world leaders like the US to resort to protectionist measures, as in the case of the recent tax breaks for companies giving jobs in the US, could give wrong signal," it said.

The Survey further said that the extraordinary financial stimulus given by different countries, including India, have contributed to the recovery.

Imports growth of some of India's trading partner like China, Hong Kong and Japan were encouraging in December 2009.

While China's imports from India grew by 71 per cent in December 2009, Japan imports went up by 3 per cent. Growth in Hong Kong imports from India turned highly positive at 58.5 per cent.

Economic Survey full coverage | Economic Survey Highlights | Budget 2010 full coverage

"Even in case of the US, which is still registering negative import growth, the extent of negative growth has become less, with imports from India growing at (-) 10 per cent in November 2009," it said.

"In the medium term, it is reasonable to expect that the economy will go back to the robust growth path of around 9 percent that it was before the global crisis slowed it down in 2008."

The survey said there were several reasons to suggest that the India's economic fundamentals remained strong, including high savings and investment rate, the arrival of home-grown companies in the global space and the dream run for the services sector.

At the same time, agriculture continues to be the cause for concern even as it remains the mainstay of the Indian economy, with the bulk of its workforce dependent on farming, either directly or indirectly.

"There is need to undertake serious policy initiatives to reach the government's target of sustained 4 percent growth in this sector."

The survey also expressed concern over rising prices, especially in essential items that has pushed the country's annual food inflation, based on wholesale prices, to nearly 18 percent in recent weeks.

"As of now the outlook for inflation is conditioned by supply-side pressures in the near term," said the survey while also making a veiled criticism in the manner in which the government has sought to tackle rising prices.

"Making available adequate and timely quantities of these items and at different locations to overcome supply side mismatches is the real challenge," the survey noted, adding in some essential items there were ample stocks.

The annual report card also said the current rebound in growth called for the gradual withdrawal of the $37-billion stimuli since December 2008 to help the country weather the ills of global slowdown.

"The largely structural nature of fiscal deficits in India, the levels of recovery in the economy and the sustainability of the recovery without fiscal stimulus call for resumption of process of fiscal consolidation in a gradual manner."

At the same time the export sector needed a further push, even as it said that the outlook for India's merchandise trade has brightened in 2010 with the prospects of a recovery in world output and trade volumes.

"While in the short-term, stimulus measures have worked, some fundamental policy changes are needed. For the merchandise sector these include furthering tariff reforms by lowering the peak duties from the present 10 percent to 7.5 percent."

Foreign investors bullish on agri, electrical equipment sectors

The agriculture services sector attracted foreign direct investment of Rs 6,327 crore during the first eight months of the current

fiscal against Rs 16 crore in the year ago period, the Economic Survey said on Thursday.

FDI in the sea transport sector was up by 918 per cent to Rs 12,983 crore, while in the electrical equipment segment inflows increased by 202 per cent to Rs 2,724 crore during April-November 2009-10.

"The sectoral shares of FDI inflows have fluctuated significantly. Sectors like agricultural services, sea transport and electrical equipment have shown a quantum jump in FDI inflows during 2009-10," the Survey tabled in Parliament said.

The Survey said that divergent patterns in growth rates were due to change in exchange rate during the period.

Foreign inflows in housing and realty sectors have risen to Rs 10,565 crore in April-November 2009-10 from Rs 8,353 crore in the same period last year.

In March 2005, the government had liberalised the foreign investment norms with a view to catalysing investment in the realty sector. It allows 100 per cent FDI through automatic route in construction development projects, including housing, commercial premises, recreational facilities and townships.

Other sectors which receives significant FDI includes telecommunication, power, hotel and tourism.

Total FDI during the period was Rs 93,354 crore, signifying a growth of 9 per cent from Rs 85,700 crore in the year ago period.

Quality primary schooling for all should be the target for effective learning, while focus on higher and technical education is the need of the hour for employment generation, the Economic Survey said on 25 February.

"Universalisation of elementary education of adequate quality to ensure satisfactory learning standards among children is an objective that needs to be pursued vigourously," the Survey tabled in Parliament said.

The Survey said under the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan (SSA), 2,88,155 new schools have been opened till September 2009. In addition, the initiative has also seen supply of free text books to 9.05 crore children.

All the media coverage. On one easy-to-use website. Browse Livemint.com's Budget 2010 microsite. (Click here)

A total of 10.11 lakh teachers have been appointed under the SSA and another 21.79 lakh have been provided in-service training, it added. "There has been significant reduction in the number of out-of-school children on account of SSA interventions."

The pre-budget Survey stressed the importance of higher and technical education segments also.

"Quality higher and technical education increases the employability of the youth and can help reap the benefits of India's looming demographic dividend," it added.

The government has spent Rs425 crore for setting up of new polytechnics during 2009, covering 175 districts.

"Two new Indian Institute of Technology (IITs) at Indore and Mandi started functioning from the academic session 2009-10," the Survey said.During the 11th Five Year Plan, one new Indian Institute

of Management (IIM) was established in Shillong in 2008-09. "...the remaining will be set up in Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan."

Besides, the Central Universities Act was promulgated in January last year for conversion of three state universities into central universities.

It also brought new central universities in 12 states.

On examination reform, the Survey said, "Government policies have been focusing on providing quality education and upgrading skills as well as creating a more child-friendly educational environment."

It mentioned that the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) took some important decisions, like doing away with board exams for Class X from 2011, after consultations with various stakeholders such as school principals, teachers, parents, students, academics and the people.

The survey further said the Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA), launched in March last year, has objectives of achieving an enrolment ratio of 75% for Classes IX-X within five years and universal access to secondary level education by 2017, among others.

Besides, the government has sanctioned 167 model schools across six states.

Also 163 girls' hostels have been set up in seven states under a centrally sponsored scheme.


India seen as potential buyer for IMF gold

25 Feb 2010, 0400 hrs IST, REUTERS

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI: Reserve Bank of India, which has increased its gold holdings to diversify its reserves, looks set to be a buyer again when the
International Monetary Fund begins selling 191.3 tonnes of the precious metal amid volatility in major currencies.

The uncertain outlook for two of the world's major reserve currencies -- the dollar and euro -- provides a spur for central banks, including India's, to buy gold. India's gold holdings lag those of major economies despite a big purchase in October.

"India is no stranger to gold. They are gearing up for growth and want to recalibrate their reserves," said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ. "They can't lift their gold holdings from domestic output, unlike China. And they have shown an appetite to buy in the past."

Reserve Bank of India officials declined to comment on their gold plans but some said the bank considered gold to be a safe investment strategy. "We are closely looking at the gold market. We buy at market prices," an RBI official said.

The RBI adjusts its reserve portfolio on a regular basis, officials at the bank said. None of the officials would speak on the record, given the sensitivity of the matter. "The RBI doesn't want to take a credit risk as there are concerns on the dollar and the euro now," said a senior RBI official who is not directly involved in the bank's gold purchases. "So, despite the interest being very low, gold is a safe bet," the official said, referring to the low returns the bank receives through custodians for lending out some its gold.


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Another RBI official noted that since India's foreign exchange reserves have not risen as the bank has not been intervening heavily in the forex market, the proportion of gold has held steady after its last purchase of the precious metal in October. For a graphic of India's yearly imports.

The IMF said last Wednesday that it would soon begin selling the gold in the open market in a phased manner to avoid disrupting the market. The sale is part of an IMF programme announced last year to sell a total of 403.3 tonnes of gold, or about one-eighth of its total stock. China, with about $1.6 trillion in reserves, is a producer of gold and is unlikely to buy the gold being offered by the IMF, the official China Daily reported on Wednesday.

"It is not feasible for China to buy the IMF bullion, as any purchase or even intent to do so would trigger market speculation and volatility," said an unidentified official from the China Gold Association.

The RBI was the biggest buyer in the IMF gold sale last year, snapping up 200 tonnes over two weeks and boosting its holdings to 10th largest among central banks. "In the second tranche also it is possible they may bid for it. This is an opportunity for diversification of reserves," said A Prasanna, economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.

  • Economy and Politics

Mamata's train to nowhere

Passenger and freight rates are unchanged, restricting options t

o raise money for Banerjee's Vision 2020

Rahul Chandran and Sanjiv Shankaran

  • font size

New Delhi: Railway minister Mamata Banerjee presented her budget for the next fiscal year, laying down grand ambitions without explaining how they would be paid for, tacitly admitting that she was up against an insurmountable fiscal barrier.

The minister restricted her revenue generation options by keeping passenger and freight rates unchanged. The subsidy on passenger fares is estimated at Rs19,121 crore in the current year. She also had to dip into accumulated savings, a practice that Banerjee had previously condemned when her predecessor Lalu Prasad did the same.

Also See Numbers Game ( Graphics)

While the minister's Vision 2020 document, issued in December, envisages an investment expenditure of Rs14 trillion, or Rs1.4 trillion every year for the next decade, revenue in 2010-11 is estimated at Rs97,722 crore. With Rs88,000 crore absorbed by operational expenses, this leaves less than Rs10,000 crore for investments, well short of the desired amount.

The failure to implement Vision 2020 will hobble the expansion plans of the Indian Railways, which at the least would act as a drag on the country's ability to sustain 9%-plus growth. The development strategy of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government depends critically on growth to generate the necessary resources to fund social investments.

At the end of a speech that was was constantly interrupted and lasted a little over two hours—of which long periods were taken in reading out the names of new trains or stations—core issues of funding remained unaddressed, with the minister preferring instead to hold out hope that the private sector would step in to bridge the gap.

All the media coverage. On one easy-to-use website. Browse Livemint.com's Budget 2010 microsite. (Click here)

Passenger and freight fares remained untouched even as the financial condition of the national transporter continued to be weak, with the the railways generating a surplus of only Rs951 crore in 2009-10, against its expectations of Rs2,642 crore. A railways official who did not want to be named said the railways had underestimated the impact of the Sixth Pay Commission's recommendations by as much as Rs14,000 crore.

Also Read Desperate measures show the rot in railway finances

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Meanwhile, the operating ratio or the amount of money the railways spends to earn every Rs100 in revenue rose from the budgeted Rs92.5 last year to Rs94.70.

While freight revenue in 2009-10 increased 9.88% over the year ago period, that from passenger fares rose 9.69%. The Plan outlay has been increased 2.83% to Rs41,426 crore, of which Central support amounts to more than one-third, while borrowings account for 25%.

Passengers travel in an overcrowded train in Patna on Tuesday. Krishna Murari Kishan / Reuters

Passengers travel in an overcrowded train in Patna on Tuesday. Krishna Murari Kishan / Reuters

Interestingly, much of the minister's pronouncements in the budget are contingent on the actions of others, especially the private sector. A survey of 114 "socially desirable" but financially unviable projects announced in the rail budget depend on final approval by the Planning Commission, which in recent times, has been critical of the ministry's penchant for announcing unprofitable lines.

Banerjee also proposed the setting up of five rail wagon factories, a rail axle factory and a refrigerated container factory, among others, to be part funded by the private sector. The ministry also said—without giving any details—that it was open to the private sector setting up new railway lines.

A railway official, who did not want to be named, said the 25,000km of new lines announced by the minister in her vision would come at an average cost of Rs7 crore per kilometre, or a total of Rs1.75 trillion.

The railways so far has not been successful in attracting private investment, something Banerjee blamed on red tape. To address this, she set up a task force to clear investment proposals within 100 days.

"We want to speed up projects," she told reporters after her budget speech.

To be sure, Banerjee did follow through on some of her promises in Vision 2020, budgeting for steep increases in railway lines, electrification and gauge conversion.

Experts were sceptical about the budget's scope.

"Some of the announcements appear to be tall orders, given the IR's bureaucracy and administrative sloth," Jay Shankar, chief economist, Religare Capital Markets Ltd, said in an email. "These include the roll-out of 1,000km of new tracks in FY11, formulation of a special task force to clear business proposals in 100 days, and plans to ensure that every rail crossing is manned in the next five years."

She continued with her focus on projects located in West Bengal, her home state, which will head for assembly elections next year. She also announced special trains, the setting up of cultural and heritage centres and concessional fares for the transport of kerosene and foodgrains.

Banerjee also announced her intention of setting up a National High Speed Rail Authority as well as proposals for a dedicated passenger corridor to be called the Golden Rail Corridor. She added 101 new suburban services, 54 new trains and extended 21 others.

She also announced the setting up of 522 hospitals and diagnostic centres and 50 Kendriya Vidyalayas (central schools) in partnership with the ministries of health and human resources development.

Banerjee also promised a modified scheme for investment in wagons and 10 automobile and ancillary hubs.

Graphics by Yogesh Kumar/Mint

rahul.c@livemint.com


12:38AM | February 25,2010
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The railway budget for 2010-11 provides some pointers, a lot more intent but no clear way forward about where the Elephant is headed for
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Banerjee proposes to finance the annual plan outlay of Rs41,426 crore through gross budgetary support
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Investment spending is the biggest concern: Gunjan Gulati, JP Morgan

25 Feb 2010, 1346 hrs IST, ET Now
unjan Gulati, economist, JP Morgan, in a chat with ET Now talks about the

Economic survey.
We have seen the Economic Survey numbers come out. Is there any part of this puzzle that according to you does not fit right now or would you also just like to take a very sanguine stance?

No, yes, I mean we had had the CSO estimates earlier last month and despite the drought, which we had and the impact on the agriculture production, which we saw this year, we are going to top about 7% growth this year.

But we are well past this year now and we have to start thinking about next year. I mean estimates between 8-8.5% are rolling on the street but the bigger number, which you said is a concern right now, is the investment spending and linked to that is the credit growth and we have not seen that picking up.

We have seen in the past investment being the key driver and the key trigger of the growth. Just to put some numbers, India averaged about 9% growth in the last 4-5 odd years. Around that time, investment grew at 15-16%.

But so far, the average in the last 2-3 years, 3 quarters, investment has seen about 5-6% growth. So we are not seeing that the key driver of the growth pick up as yet and the bigger concern right now investment not picking up is because there is some bit of concern on the global side, which still remains amongst the corporate, which is kind of holding them back to take on major capital expansion plans and that's what is keeping even the credit numbers subdued so far.

So for me to probably suggest something with a very high strong growth, I would like to see investment picking up more strongly than what we see today.

Budget 2010

Expectations from budget: E&Y

The approach to be adopted for the budget needs to look at the fiscal deficit, inflation and for the infrastructure to be in place so that the growth doesn't stop.



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NEWS

  • Government clueless on price rise: BJP

       Thursday February 25, 2010 03:24 am PST
    New Delhi: The government has 'run out of ideas' on controlling the spiralling prices of essential commodities and is 'only looking for alibis' to cover up for its failures, main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) said on Thursday.  Read More


  • Infrastructure bottlenecks main roadblock in industry's growth

       Thursday February 25, 2010 03:22 am PST
    New Delhi: The outlook for Indian industry has brightened for the medium term but infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in energy and roads, remain the constraining factors for stepping up growth to a higher level, says the Economic Survey for this fiscal.  Read More


  • India can become fastest growing economy in four years: Survey

       Thursday February 25, 2010 03:21 am PST
    New Delhi: India's gross domestic product (GDP) can expand by double-digit levels to emerge as the fastest growing economy in the world by 2014, even as spiralling prices remains the immediate concern, says the Economic Survey for this fiscal.  Read More


  • Highlights of the Economic Survey

       Thursday February 25, 2010 03:19 am PST
    New Delhi: Following are the highlights of the annual Economic Survey for the current fiscal tabled by the Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the Lok Sabha on Thursday:  Read More


  • Recommendations of Finance Commission largely accepted: Mukherjee

       Thursday February 25, 2010 03:16 am PST
    New Delh: The government has largely accepted the suggestions made by the 13th Finance Commission that has recommended a 32-percent share of the federal taxes for states, as well as grants for local, urban and rural elected bodies for the first time.  Read More


  • India 10th largest gold-holding country: Survey

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:20 am PST
    New Delhi: From a nation that pledged its bullion two decades ago to pay for imports, 2009-10 saw India becoming the world's 10th largest gold-holding country, the Economic Survey noted.  Read More


  • Survey for freeing food, fertiliser, diesel prices

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:18 am PST
    New Delhi: The Economic Survey today asked the government to decontrol prices of food, fertiliser, diesel and kerosene, saying subsidies given to these sectors have a "questionable" impact.  Read More


  • Instant View: Finmin report urges fiscal consolidation

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:15 am PST
    New Delhi (Reuters): The government should start fiscal consolidation beginning in April by reforming spending, eliminating its revenue deficit, and putting a cap on government debt, a finance ministry report said on Thursday.  Read More


  • Industrial outlook bright, says Survey

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:12 am PST
    Lauding the strong industrial performance, the Economic Survey asked the government to ensure a balance and sustained growth as certain sectors have failed to see a revival in 2009-10.  Read More


  • Economic Survey: More stimulus to export sector

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:10 am PST
    The pre-Budget Economic Survey favoured providing further stimulus for the exports sector, arguing that the recovery prospects in global markets are still fragile.  Read More


  • FinCom for 'calibrated' stimulus exit strategy

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:08 am PST
    The 13th Finance Commission has asked the government to adopt a "calibrated" strategy for withdrawing stimulus measures provided to spur the economy in the wake of the global economic crisis.  Read More


  • Channelise savings for infra development: Survey

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:07 am PST
    Considering the dimensions of the infrastructure deficit in the country, the Economic Survey called for channelising savings for development of core sectors on a large scale.  Read More


  • India will grow by 9 pct: Economic Survey

       Thursday February 25, 2010 12:05 am PST
    Enthused by reforms and the strong fundamentals, the Economic Survey predicted that India would bounce back to a high nine per cent growth in 2011-12 on the way to becoming world's fastest growing economy in four years.  Read More

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    The Finance Minister briefs the Cabinet on the budget proposals before presenting it to the Lok Sabha.

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RAIL BUDGET - HIGHLIGHTS

    • No increase in passenger fares
    • Rs.100 reduction in freight per wagon for fertilisers and kerosene
    • Free travel for cancer patients in 3rd AC classes
    • Cost-sharing in public-private-partnership (PPP) mode in some gauge-conversion projects
    • Further extension of Kolkata Metro on priority basis; stations to be named after Bahadur Shah Zafar, Tagore family
    • Karmabhoomi trains to be introduced for migrant labour
    • New Janmabhoomi train between Ahmedabad and Udhampur
    • Special 'Bharat Teertha' train to be run around India to commemorate Rabindranath Tagore's 150th birth anniversary
    • Railway line to be extended from Bilaspur in Himachal Pradesh to Leh in Jammu and Kashmir
    • Andaman and Nicobar Islands to get railway line from Port Blair to Diglipur
    • Sikkim capital Gangtok to be connected by rail from Rangpo
    • 2011 being 150th anniversary of Rabindranath Tagore, special train to be run from West Bengal to Bangladesh
    • Gross earnings in 2009-10 estimated at Rs.88,281 crore
    • Working expenditure in 2009-10 estimated at Rs.83,440 crore
    • Expenses during 2010-11 estimated at Rs.87,100 crore
    • Thrust on expansion in 2010-11 with allocation of Rs.4,411 crore
    • Kashmir rail link to be extended to Sopore in the north of the valley
    • Net profit of Rs.1,328 crore in 2009-10
    • 10 automobile ancillary hubs to be created
    • Twenty-two million energy saving CFLs for lighting distributed already
    • Policy decision to employ one member of family whose land is requisitioned for railway projects
    • North-south, east-west dedicated freight corridors to be created
    • Construction of high-speed passenger rail corridors envisaged
    • More multi-functional hospitals to be set up
    • Educational facilities to be set up for children of 80,000 women families
    • Special facilities to be established for gangmen
    • Insurance facilities for licensed porters as part of railway's corporate social responsibility
    • Centre for railway research to be established with Indian Institutes of Technology and
    • Defence Research and Development Organisation
    • Will involve unions in policy making
    • Integral Coach Factory Chennai to be further modernised
    • New wagon repair shop in Mumbai
    • Design, development and testing centre for railway wheels at Bangalore
    • Within five years, all unmanned level crossings to be manned
    • Construction of more underpasses, besides road overbridges
    • Greater coordination with state governments to protect railway property
    • Security of women passengers to be improved
    • Ex-servicemen to be employed in Railway Protection Force
    • Five sports academies to be set up
    • Astroturf to be provided for development of hockey
    • Employment opportunities for sports persons
    • Railways to be lead partner for Commonwealth Games
    • Special drive to increase passenger amenities
    • Upgrade of 94 stations
    • Six new drinking water bottling plants in PPP mode
    • Modern toilets at railway stations
    • More ticketing centres to help the public
    • Acquisition of cutting edge safety technology
    • 1,000 route km to be created
    • Special task force for clearing investment proposals in 100 days
    • New business model to be created
    • No privatisation of railways
    • But greater participation of private sector
    • 117 of 120 new trains for current fiscal to be flagged off

Pakistan's foreign secretary Salman Bashir (C) comes out of the airport after his arrival in New Delhi February 24, 2010. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

India, Pakistan to meet, seeking thaw in relations

Reuters

India and Pakistan hold their first official talks since the 2008 Mumbai attacks on Thursday, a meeting that is unlikely to lead to an immediate breakthrough but may help thaw their frigid relations.

Avoid tour abroad during session: PM to ministers

IE

Taking exception to ministers wanting to travels when Parliament session is on, PM Manmohan Singh has cautioned his colleagues against making travel plans abroad unless absolutely necessary.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is seen at a news conference in Riyadh February 15, 2010. REUTERS/Fahad Shadeed/Files

US upbeat on Israeli-Palestinian talks

Reuters

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday she hoped Israeli-Palestinian peace talks would resume "shortly," sounding more upbeat than usual for a US official.

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Bold and sexy 'Red'

Here is a look at the red hot style statement

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'Jai ho' once again

AR Rahman bags two trophies at the Grammy Awards

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R-Day celebrations

India celebrates 60 years of being a 'Republic'

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Top 10 news of '09

Quick review of headlines that made news in '09

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Economic Survey says India's trade prospects has brightened in 2010

Sify - ‎2 hours ago‎
The Economic Survey for 2009-10 presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament on Thursday has revealed India's share in world merchandise ...

Infant deaths to fall below 30 per 1000 live births by 2012: Survey

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... although block and village level annual plans have not been prepared for 24 States and UT, the Economic Survey said. India has successfully brought down ...
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Economic Survey: Free grain stocks if food prices rise

Moneycontrol.com - ‎7 hours ago‎
The finance ministry, in its annual survey of the economy for fiscal year to March 2010, said state-run Food Corp of India and other firms should release ...

Economic Survey 2010 - Full Text

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Economic Survey urges fiscal discipline ahead of budget

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The ministry's economic survey for the 2009/10 financial year urged a calibrated exit from fiscal stimulus, which cushioned India's economy from the worst ...
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Budget tomorrow amid debate on stimulus rollback

NDTV.com - ‎2 hours ago‎
... on Thursday with Economic Survey and Finance Commission favouring gradual rollback of stimulus to check strains on government finances, but India Inc ...

Sensex shrugs off upbeat Economic Survey

India Infoline.com - ‎3 hours ago‎
BSE Sensex was unable to bounce back despite an upbeat Economic Survey. With the Railway Budget turning out to be more populist one and international equity ...

Average IPO volume up; total number of issues down in 2009: Survey

Economic Times - ‎6 hours ago‎
The government divested stake through IPOs in NHPC and Oil India to mop up a combined over Rs 8800 crore. Some of the big ticket IPOs of 2009 include NHPC ...

Dubai crisis could affect India's foreign trade: Survey

NDTV.com - ‎7 hours ago‎
... to have "some impact" on India's exports and imports as the gulf region is the country's largest trade partner, the Economic Survey 2009-10 has said. ...

Investment spending is the biggest concern: Gunjan Gulati, JP Morgan

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India needs 6800 more hospitals, NRHM has many glitches: Survey

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India needs over 6800 more hospitals in rural areas to provide basic health facilities to people, the annual Economic Survey released Thursday said. ...

Government adopts multi-pronged approach to correct uneven progress in health ...

Oneindia - ‎1 hour ago‎
New Delhi, Feb 25 (ANI): The Economic Survey for 2009-10 presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament on Thursday has revealed that an ...

Infant deaths to fall below 30 per 1000 live births by 2012: Survey

The Hindu - ‎4 hours ago‎
PTI AP Under the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), which was launched in 2005, infant mortality rate (IMR) is expected to fall below 30 in every 1000 ...

Infant deaths to fall significantly in 3yrs: Survey

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New Delhi, Feb 25 (PTI) India's infant mortality rate is expected to witness a significant drop in three year's time with National Rural Health Mission ...

India's food inflation now at 17.58 percent

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India's annual food inflation based on wholesale prices fell to 17.58 percent for the week ended Feb 13 from 17.97 the week before, as per official data ...

India's food inflation falls to 17.58 pc

Oneindia - ‎5 hours ago‎
New Delhi, Feb 25: India's food inflation fell to 17.58 per cent for the week ended Feb 13, a government data release showed. Food inflation was at 17.97 ...

Retail prices rising 10-times faster than wholesale's

NDTV.com - ‎6 hours ago‎
PTI, February 25, 2010 (New Delhi) In the midst of an ongoing debate among policymakers over price rise, the Economic Survey on Thursday said the retail ...

Food inflation rises to 17.58 per cent

Indian Express - ‎7 hours ago‎
The food price index rose 17.58 per cent in the 12 months to Feb. 13, while the fuel price index was up 9.89 per cent, the government said on Thursday. ...

Food inflation falls to 17.58%

NDTV.com - ‎7 hours ago‎
Food inflation falls to 17.58 per cent for the week ended February 13 from 17.97 per cent in the previous week. The index for 'food articles' group declined ...

Economic Survey: Free grain stocks if food prices rise

Moneycontrol.com - ‎7 hours ago‎
The state-run grain procurement agencies must free some grains in the open market if food prices accelerate, the finance ministry said in a report on ...

Food price inflation eases to 17.58 per cent

domain-B - ‎1 hour ago‎
The annual rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index of food articles declined to 17.58 during the week ended 13 February 2010 from 17.97 per ...

Food Inflation Declines To 17.58% From 17.97%

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For the week ended Feb 13, the country's twelve-monthly food inflation based on wholesale prices dropped to 17.58% as against 17.97% in the previous week. ...

India's food inflation eases slightly to 17.58 %

NetIndian - ‎4 hours ago‎
India's food inflation rate came down slightly to 17.58 per cent in the year to February 13 from 17.97 per cent in the previous week, while fuel prices were ...

India's Weekly Food Inflation Drops

RTT News - ‎4 hours ago‎
(RTTNews) - India's food inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, or WPI, for the week ended February 13 dropped due to the lower prices of tea, ...

Economic Survey 2010 - Full Text

Share  ·   print  ·   T+  

The text of the Economic Survey presented by the Finance Minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee in Parliament on February 25, 2010.

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

Chapter 8

Chapter 9

Chapter 10

Chapter 11

Keywords: Economic PolicyEconomic SurveyPranab MukherjeeFinance

Latest in this section

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Emphasis on security, passenger amenities, expansion of rail network, slew of concessions... freight and passenger rates left untouched, are some highlights of Union Minister Mamata Banerjee's Railway Budget for 2010-11.
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Palash Biswas
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Pl Read:
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2 comments:

Unknown said...

That's a great article. You can read <a href="https://superlearner.club/ultimate-summary-of-economic-survey-2018/> Economic Survey </a> explained in simple terms, to plan your finances. Hope it helps

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