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Customers call for Whole Foods boycottBBC News - - 5 hours ago But the American supermarket chain Whole Foods Market has found itself at the centre of a storm of controversy after its chief executive, ... Rod Dreher: Whole Foods and its wholly foolish boycotters Dallas Morning News A Shoppers' Rebellion at Whole Foods New York Times Food fight over Whole Foods Baltimore Sun Low-fat food is of no use: ExpertsTimes of India - 3 hours ago Those trying to lose weight may not benefit from the so-called low-fat food, say dietary experts. Experts warn that some 'skinny foods' are no different ... The skinny diet trap Herald Sun Inflation up at -1.53%, food still hotEconomic Times - Aug 20, 2009 NEW DELHI: The annual rate of inflation measured by the wholesale price index negated the impact of soaring food prices to remain at sub-zero levels, ... Inflation up at -1.53% , food prices increase Business Standard WPI falls, food prices surge on poor monsoon Reuters India Inflation at -1.53%, food prices still rising Indian Express Four tribals die of suspected food poisoning in OrissaPress Trust of India - 4 hours ago Koraput (Orissa), Aug 23 (PTI) Four tribals, including a 12-year-old girl, died due to suspected food poisoning after drinking mango juice at a remote ... Mango kernel soup kills four tribals in Koraput Times of India Four of family die of food poisoning in Orissa Thaindian.com Soaring food prices may affect Ganesh festival spendEconomic Times - Aug 22, 2009 MUMBAI: For 11 days beginning August 23, the streets of Maharashtra will echo with the chants of 'Ganapati bappa morya'. Though H1N1 (swine flu), ... IRCTC plans incentives for contractors providing quality foodZee News - 9 hours ago New Delhi: Faced with mounting criticism over the quality of food served on trains, the IRCTC is now mulling awarding 'incentives' based on passenger ... Bring in Right to Food Act soon: ActivistsExpress Buzz - 11 hours ago Elaborating on the issue, Biraj Pattnayak, the Advisor to the Supreme Court on the Right to Food Case said that despite developmental initiatives, ... 'Nothing exceptional about food served in trains'Indian Express - - 15 hours ago This has always been a core subject of debate given the diversity of passengers travelling in trains and their distinct food choices. ... Food import likely to tide over crisisEconomic Times - Aug 21, 2009 Inflation in food items is already high, although inflation for all commodities is below zero for the tenth consecutive week, for which data is available. ... Food prices likely to stay high Times of India India to import food amid drought BBC News States oppose Centre's proposal, insist on food for allHindu - - Aug 20, 2009 At the recent Food Ministers' conference, a majority of the States disagreed with the Centre's proposal and contested the Planning Commission's poverty ... Poor monsoon hits cheap rice scheme Deccan Herald Stay up to date on these results: |
Reporter's diary: Afghan electionsAljazeera.net - 4 hours ago Men who died fighting for a cause that was never achieved in the Anglo-Afghan Wars, denied by fearsome Afghan fighters. There is a large cracked gravestone ... Video: Karzai, Abdullah Both Claim Lead The Associated Press Taliban Cuts off Voter Fingers RantRave | Published Opinion. Under burqas, Afghan women voted in protest Christian Science Monitor The Second World War: six years that changed this country for everguardian.co.uk - 16 hours ago "War makes you cautious about the immediate future," she says. "For years, my mum kept a stock of tinned food in the cupboard. Tinned fruit, tinned soup, ... Foodie Freak: World War II eatingLake County News - - 7 hours ago The book is filled with recipes, anecdotes, and quotes about food and shopping during the big war. I was surprised when I read the part about how when Pearl ... Lazy to cook? Just heat & eatfnbnews.com - Aug 21, 2009 After the war, many commercial food companies were left with surplus manufacturing facilities. These companies developed new lines of canned and freeze ... SF Food WarsSFStation.com - Aug 16, 2009 Whatever the secret ingredients may be, our fierce competitors will go head to head to claim the ultimate glory of being crowned champion at SF Food War's ... Inquirer Mindanao War evacuees keep the cooking goingInquirer.net - - 18 hours ago Instead of a variety of fresh and jellied fruits, the ingredients of her halo-halo are mostly macaroni in the rainbow colors of food dye. ... 2000 families displaced in clan warInquirer.net - Aug 19, 2009 Joseph Unson, municipal administrator of Datu Blah Sinsuat town, said the internally displaced persons (IDPs) receive their last food ration from the ... Food Snobbery 101: Eggs BenedictDecider Milwaukee - - 10 hours ago Despite the name, it's a French-created sauce, with the Dutch etymology related perhaps to 17th-century Huguenots, or maybe to World War I butter ... Food Stocks: Time to Stock UpSeeking Alpha - 1 hour ago CKR: The burger chain continues to innovate through clever ad campaigns and refusing to join the discount burger wars. The eatery caters well to young ... RPT-New challenges put reforms on ice in IndiaReuters India - - Aug 19, 2009 NEW DELHI, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Rising food prices and a possible drought. Swine flu and a damaging corporate war. ... Stay up to date on these results: |
India's environmental situation alarming,Indian
Prime Minister ,the father of ECONOMIC Reforms in south Asia has declared.
Service of the best Agent for the TRIBLIS Global ORDER and ZIONIST ILLUMINATI, DR AMARTYA Sen continues to help MIND Control via UNPRECEDENTED Misinformation Campaign and DIVERSION in Indian Media.
Lalgarh INSURRECTION coincidented with Water Crisis, Climate CHANGE, Gange MNC REALTY Rape of Nature, revenue and Resource diversion to feed GREEDY Money Machine, JOB LOSS, DIVESTMENT, DISPLACEMENT, DEPORTATION, Refugee INFLUX infinite, Terrorism and Insurgency, Virtual realty, destruction of INDIGENOUS Production System and ABORIGINAL Livelihood, Manusmriti rule and apartheid to sustain ENSLVEMENT, Bonded Labour, Untouchabiliti, Injsutice and Inequality - COMBINED hearlds the FOOD WAR IMMINENT despite so many False FLAGSHIP Programmes , Infrastructure Drive, Urbanisation, Indiscriminate Industrialisation and Human BETRAYING MISLEADING Managing Strategic Political as well Economic Projections!
DR Amarya Sen and the MEDIA as well as Intelligentsia works round the clock to justify MASS Destruction Agenda, ECONOMIC Reforms for ETHNIC Cleansing, Inherent Injustice, Inequality, Strategic Realliance in US lead, Corporate Imperialism, EXTRA CONSTITUTIONAL Governance and Policy making bypassing all DEMOCRATIC Norms, REALTY BOOM, OPEN Market, mass Privatisation, divestment, FIIS, FDI, STIMULUS, EXEMPTIONS, Waivers, defence kickbacks, Suicidal Energey Economy, Nuclear arms race, CARBON EMISSION,STARVATION, Farmers` sucide Spree, RETAIL Chain and CONTRACT Farming, starvation, REPRESSION and Persecution, KILLINGS and all DIMENSIONS of MONOPOLISTIC Aggression!
Agricuture and food in crisis! Conflict, Resistance and Renewal should be basic discussion points! But Democaratic INSTITUTIONS being killed and political Turmination of People`s resistance and empowerment, leabes no space of consideration. Thus, food war seems ineveitable as the HEGEMONY is more committed to FEEDING and kills every space for FOOD SOVERGEINTY of the underpreveileged masses. Lifestock feeding is just replaced by FEEDING MNCS!
Overview of Global food Crisis and Indian, South Asian references would just EXPOSED how the MASSES are denied FOOD to make indigenous, aboriginal and minrity species to EXTINCT for the BOOSTER Effluent Consumer RULING class across the political borders.
Food WARS may be UNSEEN passages of literature for the educated, previleged, salaried, plastic money holders, but we may see this at every village of RURAL India where the POCKETS of Starvation and FAMINE fight round the clock just for sustenance!
Historical Prespective exposes Imperialist, Feudal, fascist and religous forces` alignment to MONPOLY the Right to FOOD! Indian BONDED labor system exists till date as a BURNING Example!
Origin of Food crisis in India and Developed countries tell the same single story as MONOPLOISTIC Aggression against the Masses are backed by the elements like Free Trade in agricuture and WTO, Protectionism, WORLD Bank, IMF, European Community and Worldwide Zionist Illuminati which RUN the National Governments as well as media and banking system, DECIDE Fiscal and Monetray policies and CAPTURE not only the Natural but Human RESOURCES!
Agricultural Production System in India roots in Folk and folklore. It is associated with nature and natural resources. Our RIVERS are our Gods and goddesses just because they MOTHER our Agrarian Civilisations! Religion has completed the Annihilation and Enslavement primary for thousands and thusands years under Manusmriti Rule. Colonial Rule made it systematic Structure of FEUDAL Land holding. Since then, we lost
Food Soveregnity!
Food security Legisalation is a POLITICAL EXERCISE of Strategic rural retail marketing, we have to see!
Global food system and weather Cycle Change do effect us, as nothing is local and ILLUMINATI has ENSURED the RESERVATION of FOOD Chain worldwide and it is an UNSEEN, Undefined BELOW POVERTY LINE in reality who have to be ELIMINATED. Family Plan meant this. development and infrastructure meant this. Commercialisation of public Utilities like Education, Medical care , Transport, Energy, entretainment, harvesting have left no PURCHASING power for the PEASANTRY Untouchable to save anything for GRAINS and Edible Oils!
Monsoon and water Resources in India worked so consistantly to sustain it as Folk based Aboriginal Indigenous plural AGRARIAN Society. Americanisation has killed this SOCIETY and it is very hard to get a FOLK Based Complete Indian Village even in remote areas. Independent and SELF SUFFICIENT Indian Villages have lost in virtual reality!
Indian people have lost the great Water War to the INDIA INCs and MNCs, Promoters and Builders, retail chain, Cold drinks empires. The Insurrections countrywide BRANDED as NAXALITE or MAOIST is in fact the BATTLE GROUND for the WATER and forest produce, land and mines. Since the TRIBALS Never gave up their ARMS as they sustained themselves RESISTING all types of MONOPOLISTIC Aggression as well as Hindutva, manusmriti, feudal lords and Colonial Rulers and the present Brahamin corporate Hegemony, the WAR seems ESCALATING despite the KILLING licence, Striking power and CIA MOSSAD infilterations along with Worldbank fed NGOS with their projected mass movements false!
Since, the URBAN developed communities do not feel the stings of FOOD Scarcity, FOOD WARS and Water Wars, fight for Identity, basic Human rights, citizenship- MAY BE PROJECTED as INSURGENCY MUST to be CURBED with ZERO TOLERANCE and MILITARY Option!
We are habitual to bear with Water Commerce!
AIRCOOLED Retail Chains have become status SHOPPING and gripped urban Consumers so well that we may not complain against Contract farming! it is nothing new as the GREAT ICONS of Indian Renaissance OPPOSED all aboriginal indigenous, tribal , peasant insurrections time to time! Some of them used, purchased and trasported the TRIBALS beyond Political Borders and SEAS for CASH CROPS like TEA, INDIGO, Sugar canes !
The Challenges of social Movement, Social activist and Eco activists, role of NGOs and ECO AGRICULTURE have to be studied to deal with the IMMINENT FAMINE and FOOD WARS Unevitable! It is no more limited in
Modified Genetic SEEDs and Package and CHEMICAL HUBS! The crisis links to DEFENCE EXPANDITURE, Bail OUT, Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Revenue management , goverance, Trade Union Movements, Govt. and private sectors!
DR MARTYA SEN is very WRONG!
Yes, the FAMINE is LINKED to COLONISATION and IMPERIALISM! Hence US CORPORATE IMPERIALISM, Indo US Nuclear deal aStrategic realliance in US and Israel Lead have to be the KEY ISSUES to deal with POVERTY, Drought, CALAMITIES, JOBLOSS, EXODUS, STRAVATION, FAMINE, Climate Change and global Warming as well as Insurgencies, Terrorism, nationality movements, peasant uprising, Naxal and Maoist Ideologies and CIVIL WAR conditions !
The "multiple environmental crises that confront our country have created an alarming situation", Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in New Delhi on Tuesday, while asking state governments to curtail pollution, clean rivers and fight climate change.
The prime minister also called upon state governments to modernise their forest departments and to fill up vacant posts, pointing out that many states would now get huge funding for compensatory afforestation projects, as the Supreme Court has recently unfrozen over Rs 9,000 crore meant for this. The money was lying in escrow accounts for over seven yeaRs
Manmohan Singh underlined the "need to ensure that local communities benefit from forest conservation. Tribals have guarded our forests for centuries. Their wisdom and experience should be utilised for conservation rather than turning them into environmental refugees".
Over 1 billion euros to agriculture in crisis – Flexibility to ensure meaningful use
The impacts of the economic crisis on agriculture, evaluation of the efficiency of measures adopted so far and new proposals to help European farmers through a difficult spell were discussed by the EU Agriculture Ministers lead by Petr Gandalovič.
The package adopted by the European Council last Friday gives more than 1 billion euros to agriculture. It is up to the Member States governments to decide where to spend the money and how much to give to different sectors. The principle of flexibility was suggested and enforced by the Czech Presidency.
“’The impacts of the crisis are reflected not only in the falling milk prices, but also in the fact that it is more difficult for farmers to obtain loans or in falling demand for goods,” said the Minister. Gandalovič sees the adoption of the anti-crisis package as an exceptional success of the Czech Presidency.
On Friday the Heads of State and Government gave 1.020 billion euros to the agricultural sector in the EU; out of an anti-crisis package of 5 billion euros the Czech Republic should receive approximately 32.5 million euros in 2009 and 2010. Apart from improving Internet access in rural areas, the money should go to what was labelled “new challenges” in the health check of the Common Agricultural Policy that was carried out at the end of last year. Among these challenges are climate change, water management in rural areas, renewable energy sources, biodiversity and innovation, but also support to the milk sector, which dairy cattle breeders and milk producers will definitely appreciate due to the current fall in prices. The Czech Republic, in cooperation with other Member States, argued in favour of the need for flexibility in proportion to the amounts invested in the Internet and the “new challenges”. Therefore, Minister Gandalovič appreciates that the Presidency succeeded in including flexibility in the wording of the proposal: “Flexibility for Member States, i.e. the possibility of deciding on what purpose the money will be spent, will allow for using the funds where they are needed the most, which varies in each individual state.”
The Czech Presidency is also preparing a new draft Regulation on the Rural Development Programme, which should enable the Member States to revaluate the current programme and employ it as effectively as possible with respect to the specific needs of Member States.
”A working lunch discussion of the Ministers not only indicated further possibilities in the fight against the crisis in agriculture but also foreshadowed the debate on the future form of the Common Agricultural Policy and, first and foremost, the operation of the future system of direct payments; this debate will continue in the second part of our Presidency and it will culminate at the informal Council in May/June,” concluded First Deputy Minister of Agriculture Ivo Hlaváč.
Vajpayee snubs BJP, meets expelled Jaswant
New Delhi: Expelled BJP leader Jaswant Singh on Sunday met former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the latter's residence here.
Jaswant, who was a Cabinet minister under Vajpayee's government, drove to the ailing BJP patriarch's Krishna Menon marg residence Sunday afternoon.
"I came here to wish Vajpayeeji on the occasion of Ganseh Chaturthi," Jaswant told reporters after the meeting.
This is Jaswant's first meeting with a senior BJP leader after he was expelled from the party earlier this week for praising Pakistan founder Mohammad Ali Jinnah in his book "Jinnah - India, Partition, Independence".
Jaswant had yesterday met his former Cabinet colleague and JD (U) leader George Fernandes.
Jaswant Singh has been having an uneasy relationship with the party leadership ever since BJP's debacle in the Lok Sabha elections on which he had circulated a note demanding thorough discussion.
BJP is 'narrow-minded': Jaswant
Sticking to his contention in his new book that Mohammad Ali Jinnah was a "great man" who has been "demonised" in India, Jaswant Singh has said his expulsion from BJP showed that the party was "narrow-minded".
The expelled BJP leader said the party did not distinguish between Jinnah's personal attributes as a human being and his politics while taking a decision to sack him from the party for writing the book Jinnah: India, Partition, Independence.
"I didn't think the party is so narrow-minded...so nervous about Jinnah and Patel and to get so railed at what I
have written. I have a feeling, which I voiced also, that perhaps my former colleagues had not really read the book when they passed the sentence," he told Karan Thapar on Devil's Advocate programme of CNN-IBN.
When asked whether he denigrated Vallabhai Patel in his book, Singh said: "I have simply pointed out facts of history.I haven't denigrated any icon."
The former BJP leader said he would have felt better if the party had not used the word "expel" and informed him in
person.
"I wish they had not used the word expel. They had better choice of phrases. It hurt me when no one personally came and conveyed the decision. Even Advani has not called me," Singh said.
Asked whether Advani had called him after the expulsion, Singh said: "No. But it doesn't matter now and it's too late."
Singh said after informing him about his expulsion, BJP President Rajnath Singh had said they would discuss the issue some other time which never happened.
Asked whether he thinks that the BJP took the decision to expel him only after party leaders read the book, he said:
"No. I don't believe that because that is not practical... its quite a feat in speed reading if you have read 700 pages. I don't believe my prose is a fiction. It is not easy and it requires attention. It would be a remarkable feat."
Asked whether he deliberately missed events such as Pathan tribal invasion of Kashmir in September 1947, which led to war with Pakistan, Jaswant said, "I didn't overlook it because the book deals with partition.
"The subject (Pathan invasion) is a separate one, it is a subject that is altogether a subject. I have also pointed out the great killings of Calcutta in vivid detail. I didn't overlook the mistakes of his (Jinnah's) public life."
Singh said it would have taken a separate book if he had written about other aspects relating to Jinnah.
Rejecting criticism that he had exculpated Jinnah of the charge of launching a war against India, Singh said he had not done so.
"Distinction has to be made between personal attributes and public conduct. These are two very different things," he said.
Source: PTI
Direct taxes code: The Debate has begun
Over the years the tax rates have been mostly reduced with the intention of making them more rational and in tune with the international practices. It has reached a stage where any further reduction is not logically possible. At the same time the government has to think of ways of increasing its income. Hence, the need to expand the tax base. With a larger base, there would not only be more opportunities to collect taxes but also to rationalize existing rates.
The Direct Taxes Code is being mooted as a replacement to the Income Tax Act 1961. What is the idea behind replacing something that has been around for close to 50 years and what is the strategy behind the exercise?
Why a replacement?
The direct taxes code is being designed to be a replacement rather than an amendment or attempt to improve the existing laws. The reasons behind doing so are manifold:
Complexity
- The existing laws have for long been considered to be highly complex by the practitioners of the laws. These include Administrators, Chartered accountants and the tax payers
- Anyone who needs to understand what complexity means just has to download the IT Act from the Income Tax Department’s site. It would be a challenge for a lay man to read more than 2 pages of the act without feeling frustrated
- The complexities were exaggerated further by the various judgments given by different courts at different levels at different times.
- Another contributor to the confusions were the Annual Union Budgets which came up with policy changes to accommodate the changes happening in the economic environment.
Cost for the government
The issues arising out of the complexities of the Tax laws have been resulting in a large “unwanted” cost for the department. Ensuring that all taxable entities comply with their duties is a tremendous task which is made tougher and costlier by a tax law that’s complex
To broaden the tax base
Over the years the tax rates have been mostly reduced with the intention of making them more rational and in tune with the international practices. It has reached a stage where any further reduction is not logically possible. At the same time the government has to think of ways of increasing its income. Hence, the need to expand the tax base. With a larger base, there would not only be more opportunities to collect taxes but also to rationalize existing rates.
The income tax department has thus come up with a two pronged strategy to solve many issues:
- Minimising exemptions
- Removing ambiguity
By minimising the number of exemptions the department expects to achieve a better Tax-GDP ratio, Improve efficiency of the economic framework, reduce costs and reduce corruption too.
Efforts to remove ambiguity will result in better interpretation and hence lower the possibilities of avoidance using loop holes in the laws. These two strategies combined will also result in incidences of tax evasion by using the support of technology and partnerships with private companies.
How will the Direct Taxes Code differ/be better from the Income Tax Act 1961 and its numerous amendments?
- Single code for direct taxes: The new code envisages a system where all the direct taxes are brought under one single code and a common procedure for them.
- Jargon free: The number of tax payers is on a constant rise due to various factors like higher incomes, better technology and stricter enforcements. If all the tax players clearly understand the tax rules the probability of compliance will surely be higher. With this in mind the new code will try to use simple language which can be understood by a majority of tax payers without assistance from “experts”
- Read less, understand better. Unlike earlier each sub-section will be limited to a couple of sentences and convey only one point. To further simplify the understanding tables and formulae will be used which will give a pin-point explanation of the applicable rule.
- Avoid Ambiguity: Ambiguity in terms of interpretation by all stakeholders (Taxpayers, Collectors and facilitators) will be avoided. The idea is that both the collector and the payer are in clear consent regarding the meaning of the laws.
- Flexibility : The new code has been developed to give it the highest levels of flexibility to ensure that any changes occurring due to economic conditions/requirements can easily be imbibed with actually doing any amendments to the rules.
- Tax law = Form, Form = tax law: The most tangible aspect of income tax for most tax payers is the form in which they file their tax returns. The new code has been designed in such a way that the forms themselves will be a precise and clear indicator of the laws. This would ensure better education for tax payers and also the logical aspects of the laws are directly accessible to the tax payer.
- Consolidation of provisions: All the provisions including definitions, procedures, rates of taxes and incentives have been combined together into one set of documents. Thus it would be easier to reference during instances of doubt regarding the meanings of various laws.
- Deregulation! - Earlier the Tax laws were asked to play the secondary role of regulators of various components of the industry. With the creation of entities (eg., IRDA, TRAI etc) specifically to regulate these domains the code will steer clear of regulation functions thus providing more simplification.
- More stability: The current system involves the need for a separate finance bill each year to prescribe clearly the prevailing rates for the coming year. This creates a lot of confusion as the tax laws are independent of the finance act of the particular year. What the new code will do is to the have the rates permanently in the first to fourth schedule and any new changes will be implemented in corresponding schedule rather than have a separate finance bill.
This is a major step in ensuring these ideas see the light of day as early as 2011 by submitting the code for public discussion.
Food Wars | |
Walden Bello is a member of the Philippine House of Representatives, president of the Freedom from Debt Coalition, and senior analyst at the Bangkok-based research and advocacy institute Focus on the Global South. He is also chairman of the Board of Rights, an organization that promotes the rights of farmers and peasants in the Philippines. Mara Baviera served as research assistant for the book Food Wars. This article is based on the principal author’s recently published book Food Wars (New York: Verso, 2009). ESSAYS ON: | In 2006–08, food shortages became a global reality, with the prices of commodities spiraling beyond the reach of vast numbers of people. International agencies were caught flatfooted, with the World Food Program warning that its rapidly diminishing food stocks might not be able to deal with the emergency. Owing to surging prices of rice, wheat, and vegetable oils, the food import bills of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) climbed by 37 percent from 2007 to 2008, from $17.9 million to $24.6 million, after having risen by 30 percent in 2006. By the end of 2008, the United Nations reported, “the annual food import basket in LDCs cost more than three times that of 2000, not because of the increased volume of food imports, but as the result of rising food prices.”1 These tumultuous developments added 75 million people to the ranks of the hungry and drove an estimated 125 million people in developing countries into extreme poverty.2 Alarmed by massive global demand, countries like China and Argentina resorted to imposing taxes or quotas on their rice and wheat exports to avert local shortages. Rice exports were simply banned in Cambodia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Viet Nam. South-South solidarity, fragile in the best of times, crumbled, becoming part of the collateral damage of the crisis. Global Crisis, Global Protests For some countries, the food crisis was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back. Some thirty countries experienced violent popular actions against rising prices in 2007 and 2008, among them Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Guinea, India, Indonesia, Mauretania, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, Somalia, Uzbekistan, and Yemen. Across the continents, people came out in the thousands against uncontrolled rises in the price of staple goods that their countries had to import owing to insufficient production. Scores of people died in these demonstrations of popular anger. The most dramatic developments transpired in Haiti. With 80 percent of the population subsisting on less than two dollars a day, the doubling of the price of rice in the first four months of 2008 led to “hunger so tortuous that it felt like [people’s] stomachs were being eaten away by bleach or battery acid,” according to one account.3 Widespread rioting broke out that only ended when the Senate fired the prime minister. In their intensity, the Haiti riots reminded observers of the anti-International Monetary Fund (IMF) riots in Venezuela — the so-called Caracazo — almost two decades ago, which reshaped the contours of that country’s politics. The Perfect Storm? The international press and academics proclaimed the end of the era of cheap food, and they traced the cause to a variety of causes: the failure of the poorer countries to develop their agricultural sectors, strains on the international food supply created by dietary changes in China and India’s expanding middle classes who were eating more meat, speculation in commodity futures, the conversion of farmland into urban real estate, climate change, and the diversion of corn and sugarcane from food production to the production of agrofuels to replace oil. The United Nations’ World Economic Situation and Prospects spoke about the crisis being the product of a “perfect storm,” or an explosive conjunction of different developments. Speculative movements that brought about the global financial crisis that broke out in the summer of 2007 were implicated in the food crisis. According to the United Nations, the impact on food prices of speculation by financial investors in commodities and commodity futures markets “has been considerable.” It could be argued, said the report,
Others, like Peter Wahl of the German advocacy organization WEED, were more emphatic, claiming that, in fact, speculation in agro-commodity futures was the key factor in the extraordinary rise in the prices of food commodities in 2007 and 2008. With the real estate bubble bursting in 2007 and trading in mortgage-based securities and other derivatives collapsing, hedge funds and other speculative agents, they asserted, moved into speculation in commodity futures, causing a sharp increase in trades and contracts unaccompanied by little or no increase in production of agricultural commodities. It was this move into commodity futures for quick profits followed by a move out after the commodities bubble burst that triggered the rise in the FAO food price index by 71 percent during only fifteen months between the end of 2006 and March 2008 and its falling back after July 2008 to the level of 2006.5 The Agrofuel Factor Speculation was certainly among the factors that created a “perfect storm” in 2006–08. An even more prominent explanation was the diverting of cereal, especially corn, from serving as food to being used as agrofuel or biofuel feedstock. On July 3, 2008, the Guardian came out with an exposé on a secret report made by a World Bank economist that claimed that U.S. and EU agrofuels policies were responsible for three quarters of the 140 percent increase in food prices between 2002 and February 2008.6 This figure was significantly higher than the 3 percent previously reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Oxfam’s estimate of around 30 percent, the IMF figure of around 20 to 30 percent, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) 60 percent. The report’s conclusion was straightforward:
Completed as early as April 2008, the Mitchell report — named after the lead economist of the World Bank research team, Donald Mitchell — was allegedly suppressed by the World Bank out of fear of embarrassing former U.S. president George Bush and his aggressive agrofuel policy.8 The agrofuel factor affected mainly U.S. farming, where much of corn production was shifted from food to agrofuel feedstock. This is hardly surprising since over the last few years, the Bush administration’s generous subsidies, made in the name of energy “independence” and combating climate change, has made conversion of corn into agrofuel feedstock instead of food very profitable Pushed by a corporate alliance that included some of the biggest names in the energy and agrifood industries, such as ExxonMobil, Archer Daniels Midland, and Cargill, Bush made agrofuel development one of the pillars of his administration’s energy policy, with the announced goal that renewable sources should comprise a minimum of 20 percent of the energy portfolio in the transport sector within ten years. In 2007, with the administration’s active lobbying, the U.S. Congress passed the Energy Independence and Security Act that focused on promoting agrofuels and the automobile fuel industry. The act targeted the increase of agrofuels production by more than eightfold from 4.7 billion gallons in 2007 to at least 36 billion gallons in 2022 — unusually high standards that would evoke significant changes in agricultural production. As of late 2007, there were 135 ethanol refineries in operation and 74 more being built or expanded.9 Midwestern America saw itself slowly being transformed into a giant agrofuels factory. In 2008, around 30 percent of corn was allocated for ethanol, with rapid increases occurring since 2006. Not surprisingly, the strong mandate and generous subsidies, as well as high tariffs against imported sugar-based Brazilian ethanol, ensured that such a large portion of U.S. corn was being allocated for agrofuel feedstock, with a not inconsiderable impact on grain prices. While the actual impact of agrofuel production was bad enough, the future impact in developing countries was even more worrisome. Huge land lease deals are said to be taking place with land-rich countries like the Philippines, Cambodia, and Madagascar.10 There are widespread reports in international media of private firms and governments from countries that lack arable land striking lease agreements. Some of these deals are for food production, others for agrofuels, but with land being commodified, what is produced on the leased lands will ultimately depend on what is most profitable to bring to the global market at a given time. The most controversial of these deals was the Korean firm Daewoo Logistics’ plan to buy a ninety-nine-year lease on more than three million acres of land in Madagascar for agrofuel production. Maize and palm oil were to be cultivated on almost half of the arable land in the country.11 There are reports that the new government that came to power in a coup in March 2009 has cancelled the Daewoo contract owing to popular opposition. There is no certainty, however, that it will not be renegotiated. Similarly, Cambodia and the Philippines are negotiating “agricultural investment” projects. Kuwait is trading loans for Cambodian produce. The Philippines and Qatar are currently negotiating the lease of 100,000 hectares of land.12 In effect, the food crisis and energy crisis are causing countries to secure food supplies and agrofuel feedstock in unconventional ways. It is no longer sufficient to import grains. The land that produces that grain must be secured through contracts. Land is now the desired commodity, to the detriment of local populations who depend on the land for their own food consumption. Political elites in land-rich countries appear to be all too happy to oblige at the expense of their own country’s food security. Multimillion dollar leases, such as those being offered by the Chinese to the Philippine corporate groups, are a strong incentive. Structural Adjustment and Trade Liberalization While speculation on commodity futures and the expansion of agrofuel production have been important factors contributing to the food price crisis, long-term processes of a structural kind were perhaps even more central. The role of these factors accounted for the fact that in the years leading up to the food price spike of 2006–08, demand for basic grains — rice, wheat, barley, maize, and soybeans — exceeded production, with stocks falling to 40 percent of their levels in 1998–99, and the stocks-to-use ratio reaching record lows for total grains and multi-year lows for maize and vegetable oils.13 A key reason behind the fact that “production has fallen woefully short of growth in food demand,” asserted the United Nations, was the degradation of the agricultural sectors of developing countries owing to the marked “weakening [of] investment and agricultural support measures in developing countries, resulting in a condition in which “productivity growth for major food crops has stalled, and there has been no significant increase in the use of cultivated land.”14 As a result of supply constraints resulting from lack of investment, the FAO reported, “even before the recent surge in food prices, worrisome long-term trends towards increasing hunger were already apparent,” with 848 million people suffering from chronic hunger in 2003–05, an increase of six million from the 1990–92 figure of nearly 842 million.15 In short, there were a combination of structural and policy ingredients in the mix that led to the food price spike of 2006–08, and certainly, a key element was the massive economic reorientation known as “structural adjustment.” This program, which was imposed by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund on over ninety developing and transitional economies over a twenty-year period beginning in the early 1980s, was most likely the conditio sine qua non for the global food price crisis. Eroding the Mexican Countryside When tens of thousands of people staged demonstrations in Mexico early in 2007 to protest a sharp increase of over 60 percent in the price of tortillas, the flat unleavened breads that are Mexico’s staple, many analysts pointed to agrofuels as the culprit since Mexico had become dependent on imports of corn from the United States, where subsidies were skewing corn cultivation towards agrofuel production. However, an intriguing question escaped many observers: How on earth did Mexicans, who live in the land where corn was first domesticated, become “dependent” on imports of U.S. corn in the first place? The Mexican food crisis cannot be fully understood without taking into account the fact that in the years preceding the tortilla crisis, the homeland of corn had been converted to a corn importing economy by free market policies promoted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and Washington. The food price crisis in Mexico must be seen as one element in the concatenation of crises that have rocked that country over the last three decades and brought it to the verge of being a “failed state.” The key link between the food crisis, the drug wars, and the massive migration to the North has been structural adjustment. In the countryside, structural adjustment meant the gutting of the various reformist government programs and institutions that had been built by the Partido Revolucionario Institucionalizado(Party of the Institutional Revolution) from the 1940s to the 1970s to service the agrarian sector and cater to the peasantry that had served as the base of the Mexican Revolution. The sharp reduction or elimination of the services they provided, such as credit, extension, and infrastructure support, had a negative effect on agricultural production and productivity. The erosion of the capacity of peasant agriculture was further eroded by the program of unilateral liberalization of agricultural trade in the 1980s and the North American Free Trade Agreement in the mid-1990s, which converted the land that domesticated corn into an importer of the cereal and consolidated the country’s status as a net food importer. The negative effects of structural adjustment and NAFTA-imposed trade liberalization were compounded by the halting of the five-decade-long agrarian reform process as the neoliberals at the helm of the Mexican state sought to reprivatize land, hoping to increase agricultural efficiency by expelling what they felt was an excess agrarian population of fifteen million people.16 Over twenty-five years after the beginning of structural adjustment in the early eighties, Mexico is in a state of acute food insecurity, permanent economic crisis, political instability, and uncontrolled criminal activity. It may not yet be a “failed state,” to use a fashionable term, but it is close to becoming one. Creating a Rice Crisis in the Philippines Like Mexico in the case of corn, the Philippines hit the headlines early in 2008 for its massive deficit in rice. From a net food exporter, the country had become a net food importer since the mid-1990s, and the essential reason was the same as in Mexico — that is, the subjugation of the country to a structural adjustment program that was one of the first in the developing world. The program involved a massive reduction of funding for rural programs that were set up during the Marcos dictatorship in the latter’s effort to convert the peasantry into a pillar of the regime. The deleterious effects of structural adjustment, which sought to channel the country’s financial resources to the payment of the foreign debt, were compounded by the entry of the country into the World Trade Organization in the mid-1990s, which required that it end the quotas on all agricultural imports, except for rice. In one commodity after another, Filipino producers were displaced by imports. Contributing to the decline of agricultural productivity was the grinding to a halt of the agrarian reform program, which was not only successfully stymied by landlords but was not accompanied by an effective program of support services such as those that aided successful land reforms in Taiwan and Korea in the 1950s and 1960s. Today, the status of the Philippines as a permanent importer of rice and a net food importer is implicitly accepted by a government that does not see agriculture playing a key role in the country’s economic development, except perhaps to serve as a site for plantations rented out to foreign interests to produce agrofuels and food dedicated for export to the latter’s markets. Destroying African Agriculture As a continent that imports some 25 percent of the food it consumes, Africa has been at the center of the international food price crisis. In recent years, understanding of the roots of the crisis has been derailed by the fashionable notion that the reason Africa has a massive food deficit is its not having undergone the Green Revolution that Asia and Latin America experienced. As in Mexico and the Philippines, structural adjustment, with its gutting of government budgets — especially its drastic reduction or elimination of fertilizer subsidies — was key factor that turned relatively underpopulated Africa from a net food exporter in the 1960s to the chronic net food importer it is today. As in Mexico and the Philippines, the aim of adjustment in Africa was to make the continent’s economies “more efficient” while at the same time pushing them to export-oriented agricultural production to acquire the foreign exchange necessary to service their burgeoning foreign debts. This doctrinaire solution, which was applied with the World Bank and the IMF micromanaging the process, created instead more poverty and more inequality and led to significant erosion of the continent’s agricultural and industrial productive capacity. In Malawi, it led, earlier this decade, to famine, which was only banished when the country’s government reinstituted fertilizer subsidies. As in the Philippines and Mexico, the right hook of structural adjustment was followed by the left hook of trade liberalization in the context of unequal global trading rules. Cattle growers in Southern Africa and West Africa were driven out of business by the dumping of subsidized beef from the European Union. Cotton growers in West Africa were displaced from world markets by highly subsidized U.S. cotton. The World Bank now admits that by pushing for the defunding of government programs, its policies helped erode the productive capacity of the agriculture. The 2008 World Development Report contained the following damning admission:
Rather than allow Africans to devise indigenous solutions to the continent’s agrarian crisis, however, the Bank is currently promoting a new development strategy relying on large-scale corporate agriculture while creating “protected” reserves where marginalized populations would eke out an existence based on smallholder and communal agriculture, for which the Bank does not see much of a future.18 Capitalism versus the Peasant The World Bank’s promotion of corporate agriculture as the solution to Africa’s food production problems after the devastation of structural adjustment is a strong indication that, whether the designers of structural adjustment were conscious of it or not, the program’s main function was to serve as the cutting edge of a broader and longer-term process: the thoroughgoing capitalist transformation of the countryside. That the dynamics of capitalist transformation is what lies at the heart of the food crisis is essentially what Oxford economist Paul Collier contends in presenting the orthodox account of the causes and dynamics of the food price crisis in Foreign Affairs.19 A large part of the blame for the crisis stems from the failure to diffuse what he calls the “Brazilian model” of commercial farming in Africa and the persistence of peasant agriculture globally. Despite what he knows to be the negative environmental impacts associated with the Brazilian model, Collier uses the term to underline his claim that capitalist industrial agriculture, introduced in the United States and now being perfected by Brazilian enterprises for developing country contexts, is the only viable future if one is talking about global food production keeping up with global population growth. The peasantry is in the way of this necessary transformation. Peasants, he says, are not entrepreneurs or innovators, being too concerned with their food security. They would rather have jobs than be entrepreneurs, for which only a few people are fit. The most capable of fitting the role of innovative entrepreneurs are commercial farming operations:
In his dismissal of peasant agriculture, Collier is joined by many, including scholars otherwise sympathetic to the plight of the peasantry and rural workers such as Henry Bernstein, who claims that advocacy of the peasant way “largely ignores issues of feeding the world’s population, which has grown so greatly almost everywhere in the modern epoch, in significant part because of the revolution in productivity achieved by the development of capitalism.”21 Indeed, some progressives have already written off the peasantry, with the eminent Eric Hobsbawm declaring in his influential book The Age of Extremes that “the death of the peasantry” was “the most dramatic and far-reaching social change of the second half of [the twentieth] century,” one that cut “us off forever from the world of the past.”22 The Brazilian agro-enterprise that Collier touts as the solution to the food crisis is a key element in a global agrifood system where the export-oriented production of meat and grain is dominated by large industrial farms with global supply chains like those run by the Thai multinational CP and where technology is continually upgraded by advances in genetic engineering from firms like Monsanto. The global integration of production is accompanied by the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers to facilitate the creation of a global agricultural supermarket of elite and middle-class consumers serviced by grain-trading corporations like Cargill and Archer Daniels Midland and transnational food retailers like the British-owned Tesco and the French-owned Carrefour. These processes of integration and liberalization are governed by multilateral superstructure, the centerpiece of which is the World Trade Organization. According to Harriet Friedmann, the “dominant tendency” in the contemporary agrifood system
Indeed, there is little room for the hundreds of millions of rural and urban poor in this integrated global market. They are confined to giant suburban favelas, where they have to contend with food prices that are often much higher than the supermarket prices, or to rural reservations, where they are trapped in marginal agricultural activities and are increasingly vulnerable to hunger. In their deconstruction of World Development 2008, Kjell Havnevik and his associates assert (as noted above) that, indeed, the World Bank’s view of the future of Africa is one where agriculture is dominated by large-scale corporate agriculture while “protected” reserves are created where marginalized populations would eke out an existence based on smallholder and communal agriculture. The bank does not see much of a future for this arrangement, as it is reminiscent of the Bantustans of apartheid-era South Africa.24 These developments constitute not simply the erosion of national food self-sufficiency or food security but what some students of agricultural trends call “de-peasantization” — the phasing out of a mode of production to make the countryside a more congenial site for intensive capital accumulation.25 This transformation has been a traumatic one for hundreds of millions of people, since peasant production is not simply an economic activity. It is an ancient way of life, a culture, which is one reason displaced or marginalized peasants in India have taken to committing suicide. In the state of Andhra Pradesh, farmer suicides rose from 233 in 1998 to 2,600 in 2002; in Maharashtra, suicides more than tripled, from 1,083 in 1995 to 3,926 in 2005.26 One estimate is that some 150,000 Indian farmers have taken their lives over the last few years,27 and global justice activist Vandana Shiva explains why: “Under globalization, the farmer is losing her/his social, cultural, economic identity as a producer. A farmer is now a ‘consumer’ of costly seeds and costly chemicals sold by powerful global corporations through powerful landlords and money lenders locally.”28 Resistance Yet peasants have refused to go gently into that good night to which Collier and Hobsbawm — not to say Marx — would consign them. Indeed, one year before Hobsbawm’s book was published, in 1993, La Vía Campesina was founded, and over the next decade this federation of peasants and small farmers would become an influential actor on the agriculture and trade scene globally. The spirit of internationalism and active identification of one’s class interests with the universal interest of society that was once a prominent feature of workers’ movements is now on display in the international peasant movement. Vía Campesina and its allies hotly dispute the inevitability of the hegemony of capitalist industrial agriculture, asserting that peasants and small farmers continue to be the backbone of global food production, constituting over a third of the world’s population and two-thirds of the world’s food producers.29 Smallholders with farms of under two hectares make up the bulk of the rice produced by Asian small farmers.30 The food price crisis, according to proponents of peasant and smallholder agriculture, is not due to the failure of peasant agriculture but to that of corporate agriculture. They say that, despite the claims of its representatives that corporate agriculture is best at feeding the world, the creation of global production chains and global supermarkets, driven by the search for monopoly profits, has been accompanied by greater hunger, worse food, and greater agriculture-related environmental destabilization all around than at any other time in history. Moreover, they assert that the superiority in terms of production of industrial capitalist agriculture is not sustained empirically. Miguel Altieri and Clara Nicholls, for instance, point out, that although the conventional wisdom is that small farms are backward and unproductive, in fact, “research shows that small farms are much more productive than large farms if total output is considered rather than yield from a single crop. Small integrated farming systems that produce grains, fruits, vegetables, fodder, and animal products outproduce yield per unit of single crops such as corn (monocultures) on large-scale farms.”31 When one factors in the ecological destabilization that has accompanied the generalization of capitalist industrial agriculture, the balance of costs and benefits lurches sharply towards the negative. For instance, in the United States, notes Daniel Imhoff,
Industrial agriculture has created the absurd situation whereby “between production, processing, distribution, and preparation, 10 calories of energy are required to create just one calorie of food energy.”33 Conversely, it is the ability to combine productivity and ecological sustainability that constitutes a key dimension of superiority of peasant or small-scale agriculture over industrial agriculture. Contrary to assertions that peasant and small-farm agriculture is hostile to technological innovation, partisans of small-scale or peasant-based farming assert that technology is “path dependent,” that is, its development is conditioned by the mode of production in which it is embedded, so that technological innovation under peasant and small-scale farming would take different paths than innovation under capitalist industrial agriculture. The Conjuncture To be fully understood, the global food price crisis of the last few years, which is essentially a crisis of production, must be seen as a critical juncture in the centuries-long process of displacement of peasant agriculture by capitalist agriculture. Despite its dominance, capitalist agriculture never really managed to eliminate peasant and family farm-based agriculture, which has survived till now and continues to provide a substantial share of the food for the national population, particularly in the South. Yet, even as capitalism seems poised to fully subjugate agriculture, its dysfunctional character is being fully revealed. For it has not only condemned millions to marginalization but also imposed severe ecological costs, especially in the form of severe dependency on fossil fuels at all stages of its production process, from the manufacture of fertilizers, to the running of agricultural machinery, to the transportation of its products. Indeed, even before the food price crisis and the larger global economic crisis of which it was a part, the legitimacy of capitalist industrial agriculture was eroding and resistance to it was rising, not only from the peasants and small farmers it was displacing but from consumers, environmentalists, health professionals, and many others who were disconcerted by the mixture of corporate greed, social insensitivity, and reckless science that increasingly marked its advance. Now, with the collapse of the global economy, the integration of production and markets that has sustained the spread of industrial agriculture is going into reverse. “Deglobalization” is in progress “on almost every front,” says the Economist, adopting a word coined by one of the authors nearly a decade ago.34 The magazine, probably the most vociferous cheerleader of globalization, warns that the process depends on the belief of capitalist enterprises “in the efficiency of global supply chains. But like any chain, these are only as strong as their weakest link. A danger point will come if firms decide that this way of organizing production has had its day.”35 The next few years — nay, months, given the speed with which the global economy is plunging into depression — will provide the answer. As the capitalist mode of production enters its worst crisis since the 1930s, peasants and small farmers increasingly present a vision of autonomy, diversity, and cooperation that may just be the key elements of a necessary social and economic reorganization. As environmental crises multiply, the social dysfunctions of urban industrial life pile up, and globalization drags the world to a global depression, the “peasant’s way” has increasing relevance to broad numbers of people beyond the countryside. Indeed, not only in the South but also in the North, there are increasing numbers who seek to escape the dependency on capital by reproducing the peasant condition, one where one works with nature from a limited resource base to create a condition of relative autonomy from the forces of capital and the market. The emergence of urban agriculture, the creation of networks linking consumers to farmers within a given region, the rise of new militant movements for land — all this, according to Jan van der Ploeg, may point to a movement of “repeasantization” that has been created by the negative dynamics of global capitalism and empire and seeks to reverse them. Under the conditions of the deep crisis of globalization, felt widely as a loss of autonomy, “the peasant principle, with its focus on the construction of an autonomous and self governed resource base, clearly specifies the way forward.”36 Notes
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http://www.monthlyreview.org/090706bello-baviera.php
Water reform is 'needed in Asia'
Asian farmers need to modernise their irrigation methods |
Asia must reform its water use to feed 1.5 billion extra people by 2050, says a new report.
The authors warn that without big changes to irrigation many nations will have to import food.
The report says that 94% of suitable land in South Asia is already being used for growing food.
According to their computer model the continent could obtain three quarters of the additional food it needs with better irrigation systems.
The report will be presented on Tuesday to the World Water Week conference in Stockholm.
The study was carried out by the International Water Management Institute and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The researchers warn that some developing nations will have to import more than a quarter of the rice, what and maize they will need by 2050 and that this prospect will be politically risky.
They outline three options for meeting the food needs of Asia's population.
The first is to import large quantities of cereals from other regions, the second to improve and expand "rain-fed" agriculture and the third is to focus on irrigated farmlands.
Politically risky
The report warns that the first option is too politically risky and the second is impossible as suitable land is already in use in many areas.
Lead author Aditi Mukherji of the International Water Management Institute said: "Today, the option of expanding irrigated land area in Asia to feed a growing population is becoming increasingly problematic due to land or water constraints."
The scenarios presented in the report do not factor in climate change which is likely to make rainfall more erratic.
The report recommends modernising the region's large scale irrigation systems which rely on surface water but have fallen into disrepair through lack of investment.
Another suggestion is for governments to help individual farmers use cheap pumps to extract ground water for irrigation.
SEE ALSO
Water crisis to hit Asian food
Bali's traditional irrigation system needs to face the future, experts say |
Scientists have warned Asian countries that they face chronic food shortages and likely social unrest if they do not improve water management.
The water experts are meeting at a UN-sponsored conference in Sweden.
They say countries in south and east Asia must spend billions of dollars to improve antiquated crop irrigation to cope with rapid population increases.
That estimate does not yet take into account the possible impact of global warming on water supplies, they said.
Asia's population is forecast to increase by 1.5bn people over the next 40 years.
Going hungry
The findings are published in a new joint report by the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI).
They suggest that Asian countries will need to import more than a quarter of their rice and other staples to feed their populations.
"Asia's food and feed demand is expected to double by 2050," said IWMI director general Colin Chartres.
"Relying on trade to meet a large part of this demand will impose a huge and politically untenable burden on the economies of many developing countries.
"The best bet for Asia lies in revitalising its vast irrigation systems, which account for 70% of the world's total irrigated land," he said.
Without water productivity gains, South Asia would need 57% more water for irrigated agriculture and East Asia 70% more. Report by UN Food and Agricultural Organisation and the International Water Management Institute |
With new agricultural land in short supply, the solution, he said, is to intensify irrigation methods, modernising old systems built in the 1970s and 1980s.
But that, he says will require billions of dollars of investment.
'Scary scenarios'
At the same time as needing to import more food, the prices of those cereals are likely to continue to rise due to increasingly volatile international markets.
The report says millions of farmers have taken the responsibility for irrigation into their own hands, mainly using out-of-date and inefficient pump technology.
This means they can extract as much water as they like from their land, draining a precious natural resource.
"Governments' inability to regulate this practice is giving rise to scary scenarios of groundwater over-exploitation, which could lead to regional food crises and widespread social unrest," said the IWMI's Tushaar Shah, a co-author of the report.
Asian governments must join with the private sector to invest in modern, and more efficient methods of using water, the study concluded.
"Without water productivity gains, south Asia would need 57% more water for irrigated agriculture and east Asia 70% more," the study found.
"Given the scarcity of land and water, and growing water needs for cities, such a scenario is untenable," it said.
The scenarios forecast do not factor in the impact of global warming, which will likely make rainfall more erratic and less plentiful in some agricultural regions over the coming decades.
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From the May 2009 Scientific American Magazine | 170 comments
Could Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?
The biggest threat to global stability is the potential for food crises in poor countries to cause government collapse
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Key Concepts
- Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poor countries into chaos.
- Such “failed states” can export disease, terrorism, illicit drugs, weapons and refugees.
- Water shortages, soil losses and rising temperatures from global warming are placing severe limits on food production.
- Without massive and rapid intervention to address these three environmental factors, the author argues, a series of government collapses could threaten the world order.
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One of the toughest things for people to do is to anticipate sudden change. Typically we project the future by extrapolating from trends in the past. Much of the time this approach works well. But sometimes it fails spectacularly, and people are simply blindsided by events such as today’s economic crisis.
For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous. Who would not find it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from what we expect of ordinary life? What evidence could make us heed a warning so dire—and how would we go about responding to it? We are so inured to a long list of highly unlikely catastrophes that we are virtually programmed to dismiss them all with a wave of the hand: Sure, our civilization might devolve into chaos—and Earth might collide with an asteroid, too!
For many years I have studied global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their interactions. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Yet I, too, have resisted the idea that food shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization.
I can no longer ignore that risk. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy—most important, falling water tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures—forces me to conclude that such a collapse is possible.
The Problem of Failed States
Even a cursory look at the vital signs of our current world order lends unwelcome support to my conclusion. And those of us in the environmental field are well into our third decade of charting trends of environmental decline without seeing any significant effort to reverse a single one.
In six of the past nine years world grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady drawdown in stocks. When the 2008 harvest began, world carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin when the new harvest begins) were at 62 days of consumption, a near record low. In response, world grain prices in the spring and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever.
As demand for food rises faster than supplies are growing, the resulting food-price inflation puts severe stress on the governments of countries already teetering on the edge of chaos. Unable to buy grain or grow their own, hungry people take to the streets. Indeed, even before the steep climb in grain prices in 2008, the number of failing states was expanding [Purchase the digital edition to see related sidebar]. Many of their problems stem from a failure to slow the growth of their populations. But if the food situation continues to deteriorate, entire nations will break down at an ever increasing rate. We have entered a new era in geopolitics. In the 20th century the main threat to international security was superpower conflict; today it is failing states. It is not the concentration of power but its absence that puts us at risk.
States fail when national governments can no longer provide personal security, food security and basic social services such as education and health care. They often lose control of part or all of their territory. When governments lose their monopoly on power, law and order begin to disintegrate. After a point, countries can become so dangerous that food relief workers are no longer safe and their programs are halted; in Somalia and Afghanistan, deteriorating conditions have already put such programs in jeopardy.
Failing states are of international concern because they are a source of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees, threatening political stability everywhere. Somalia, number one on the 2008 list of failing states, has become a base for piracy. Iraq, number five, is a hotbed for terrorist training. Afghanistan, number seven, is the world’s leading supplier of heroin. Following the massive genocide of 1994 in Rwanda, refugees from that troubled state, thousands of armed soldiers among them, helped to destabilize neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo (number six).
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=civilization-food-shortages
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